It’s been a wild news roller coaster for U.S. gamers this week. It began with the celebratory full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2 in all its glory and games, followed closely by audience dismay over its $450 price tag and $80 for Mario Kart Tour, only for everyone to reel once again this morning as Nintendo announced it would hold off on pre-orders for the system until it could assess the impact of the Trump Administration’s sudden, sweeping, unprecedented tariffs on just about every nation in the world.
We’ve written elsewhere about why the Nintendo Switch 2 cost so much to begin with, and what impact the industry’s trade association thinks these new tariffs are likely to have on games writ large. But right now, the real question on everyone’s minds is, what’s Nintendo going to do? When pre-orders do open, will the Nintendo Switch 2 be even more expensive?
Normally, when there are questions to the tune of “what is going to happen with video games?”, I go ask a panel of expert industry analysts. While they can’t literally predict the future, most of the time, they have a pretty solid consensus understanding, backed by evidence and data, of what’s most likely to happen, and I turn around and write about that. I’ve already done it twice this week.
But for the first time since I started interviewing analysts on such topics, every single analyst I spoke to was effectively stumped. Several had guesses one way or another: Nintendo will raise the price, or won’t. But every single one of them heavily caveated their response with an emphasis on the chaos of the moment. This has never happened before, it’s all happening very fast, and absolutely no one can accurately predict what Nintendo, Trump, or anyone will do tomorrow, next week, or months down the road.
So with that rather astonishing disclaimer in mind, here’s what all the analysts I spoke to did say:
Sky-High Switch
With everyone I spoke to taking their best wild guesses on what was going to happen, I ended up with a pretty divided panel. On the side of “Nintendo will raise prices” was Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games. Though he says he at first thought it was too late for Nintendo to raise prices after it had announced them, this delay has changed his mind. At this stage, he doesn’t think Nintendo has much of a choice.
“It is very difficult to predict, but Nintendo will likely take a few days to run simulations and then announce hikes, not only for the system itself but also games and accessories,” he said. “I hope I am wrong but if sustained, these sky-high tariffs leave them no choice. Would you be surprised now to see Switch 2 hit US$500 for the base model? I wouldn’t.
“What I also want to add is this: Why on earth did Nintendo not wait for the US to fix their tariffs first and then decide on pricing during a Direct a few days later? This made no sense.”
Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, heavily caveated his opinion (as did basically everyone else) with a reminder that this is all unprecedented and unpredictable. But ultimately, he too came down on the side of games prices generally, including Nintendo prices, likely going up. But how much, and on what is anyone’s guess. “Based on the conversations I’m having, the breadth and depth of the tariffs surprised everyone, not just consumers,” he said.
Piscatella told me that Nintendo likely had some assumptions in mind about what the tariffs would be when it set the price originally. But when the actual tariffs came in on Wednesday, it was probably much higher than Nintendo, or anyone, anticipated.
“Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its US consumer pricing at this point. They have to.
“Some territories and regions globally have historically been subject to higher pricing than other parts of the world when it comes to video games. The US could certainly be joining that group because of these tariffs. The haphazard and chaotic nature of the tariffs and their announcement obviously has many scrambling to navigate the fallout.”
Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, also predicts that hardware prices will increase, though he suggests software will likely not be impacted in the same way.
“While physical versions might be subject to tariffs, the growing dominance and lower cost of digital distribution would likely limit any broader effect,” he said.
“Regarding hardware, however, the situation is more sensitive. If a 20% tariff—or any substantial increase—were to be introduced, it’s unlikely that companies like Nintendo would absorb the additional cost by cutting into their margins. In such cases, the burden could shift to consumers in the form of higher retail prices.”
Holding the Line
On the other side of speculation, again with a heavy dose of telling me how unprecedented this is and how no one really knows what will happen, I find Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist. He acknowledges that a price increase on the Nintendo Switch 2 is possible, especially given the high tariffs on Vietnam. But he thinks the company will try very, very hard to avoid that.
“I believe the volatility from the Trump tariffs was already considered in the Switch 2’s $449.99 pricing,” he said. “Given the first Trump administration’s impact, Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has since restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks. Historically, Nintendo has aimed for a launch price around the $400 mark, adjusted for inflation, suggesting that the current price already reflects an anticipation of potential economic challenges stemming from ongoing trade disputes.
“Nevertheless, the unpredictable nature of these tariff decisions—exemplified by the recent situation in Vietnam—injects a significant amount of uncertainty into the market. This could compel Nintendo to find ways to absorb or offset additional costs, especially when initial product margins are typically narrower. While I expect Nintendo will strive to maintain the $449.99 price point, the external economic pressures may eventually force a reassessment if the trade landscape deteriorates further.”
Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees, saying that Nintendo runs the risk of consumer backlash if it raises prices further:
“The extent of the tariffs and its impact on Vietnamese exports are really bad news for Nintendo,” he says. “The company is now in between a rock and a hard place, having already announced the launch price. I have already suggested that the pricing would stay as announced until 2026 at the earliest but then might be adjusted if the tariffs stay in place. This delay in pre-orders is to give the company more time and it will be hoping some sort of solution will be found over the next few weeks. This is a pretty fluid situation after all. Nintendo will not want to change the price having announced it, but I think everything is on the table now. If the pricing does change, it will impact the brand and the US consumer’s view of the product at launch. I don’t think that will put off loyal fans, but it might put off broader consumers who will take a wait a see approach. That’s particularly important during its first holiday season.”
Living in Unhinged Times
Finally, I spoke to Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics. Elliott joined the first camp of analysts in predicting higher prices on both Nintendo hardware and software due to Trump’s tariffs. He also pointed back to his comments in my previous analyst piece, where he spoke on Nintendo announcing cheaper digital editions of Nintendo Switch 2 games in certain markets. “It seems the lower prices in other markets were to nudge Switch 2 buyers to digital, as I mentioned my comments to IGN about Mario Kart World’s pricing. Nintendo might have wanted to do something similar in the US, but the tariff situation is so chaotic that Nintendo was in ‘wait and see’ mode — and decided to hedge its bets to see if it needed to offset the tariffs.”
Elliott went on to project a rather grim picture of what will happen to the games industry more broadly as a result of the tariffs, with his predictions in line with what a spokesperson from the Entertainment Software Association warned me of earlier this morning on the same topic. He says that the tariffs will result in a “weaker, poorer nation”, with consumers ultimately paying the price. Here’s the rest of Elliott’s take on this:
“Some manufacturers – Nintendo included – have been shifting their manufacturing to non-tariff-impacted markets,” Elliott says. “And even if companies can afford to switch up (no pun intended!) their supply chains, who knows which markets will get tariffs next – as recent news supports. Companies cannot just lift up their whole supply chain and move everything to the US. It’s just not logistically possible. Under current law (I can’t believe I have to qualify this, but here we are), Trump would not be in power anymore by the time such a move would be completed – for Nintendo and other manufacturers. We are living in … there’s no other word for it .. unhinged times driven by an unhinged man (and other forces).
“These extreme tariffs will also be bad for consumers in the US but are positive for the US administration’s populist façade. Policies that lead to higher prices for everyday people amid a cost-of-living crisis are deplorable. They’re bad for gamers and the games business. I won’t comment on the real reason for the US tariffs, but ‘a much stronger, much richer nation’ is not it.
What’s more, time and time again, data has shown that tariffs harm the economy. Comparative advantage is a core principle of international trade theory. Basically, consumption and economic well-being are stronger when countries focus on producing goods they can efficiently produce (at the lowest cost compared to other goods) – and trade for goods they are less efficient at producing. The trade war flies in the face of these core economic principles.”
Rebekah Valentine is a senior reporter for IGN. You can find her posting on BlueSky @duckvalentine.bsky.social. Got a story tip? Send it to [email protected].
