The Mandalorian and Grogu enters theaters under intense box office scrutiny as the first new Star Wars movie since 2019. But Lucasfilm reportedly believes next year’s Star Wars: Starfighter has a better chance of reviving the franchise.
Variety reported that The Mandalorian and Grogu, which sees Pedro Pascal reprise his role as Din Djarin from the popular Disney+ series, is estimated to earn $80-100 million domestically over the four-day Memorial Day weekend. That would put it in-line with the disastrous 2018 spinoff Solo: A Star Wars Story’s box office opening, although as Variety points out, The Mandalorian and Grogu has a production budget of $165 million, nearly half that of Solo.
Eric Handler, senior media analyst at Roth Capital Partners, said Lucasfilm is struggling to get young people into Star Wars to the same extent it so effortlessly managed with previous generations — despite the emergence of Grogu, aka Baby Yoda, as a merchandise monster. “There’s clearly interest in the brand,” Handler told Variety. “But revenues for each film have gotten progressively lower. Star Wars isn’t resonating with younger moviegoers like it did for [older] generations.”
Variety said that “insiders” at Lucasfilm as well as box office analysts have more faith in 2027’s Star Wars: Starfighter, which stars Ryan Gosling and is set after the events of The Rise of Skywalker. Deadpool & Wolverine’s Shawn Levy is directing.
IGN’s The Mandalorian and Grogu review returned a 5/10. We said: “If you’re looking for a Star Wars movie that thrills, surprises, challenges, or demonstrates a vested interest in seeing its characters grow and change… The Mandalorian and Grogu is not the way.”
The Mandalorian and Grogu comes out six-and-a-half years after the divisive The Rise of Skywalker, which means there’s a whole generation of young kids who will get to experience a brand new Star Wars movie in theaters for the first time. Director Jon Favreau has indicated he is well aware of the opportunity here, telling The Associated Press recently: “I want to make the next generation feel the way about Star Wars that I did when I saw it for the first time.” Favreau’s comments echoed those Lucasfilm co-CEO Dave Filoni issued in March, when he said The Mandalorian and Grogu benefits from launching without the weight of expectation that comes with introducing a new Star Wars trilogy.
As for Star Wars: Starfighter, Levy has described it as a standalone movie that is neither a prequel nor a sequel. “It’s a new adventure,” he insisted at Star Wars Celebration 2025. “It’s set in a period of time that we haven’t seen explored yet.” As part of that, it will not feature any “legacy characters,” so don’t expect to see Rey Skywalker pop up.
There are of course bigger picture questions about the future of Star Wars. While Ahsoka Season 2 is confirmed to be in the works for Disney+, there remains a great deal of uncertainty about other movies and shows Lucasfilm announced before Kathleen Kennedy stepped down.
The Mandalorian and Grogu hits theaters on May 22. Star Wars: Starfighter is currently due to launch on May 28, 2027.
Wesley is Director, News at IGN. Find him on Twitter at @wyp100. You can reach Wesley at [email protected] or confidentially at [email protected].
